In Search of Complementarity: Insights from an Exercise in Quantifying Qualitative Energy Futures

Abstract

In this study, we considered a bridging strategy between qualitative and quantitative research with the aim of achieving complementarity. A pilot case study using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework “SHELF” to estimate appropriate inputs for a quantitative energy systems model (based on a qualitative energy future scenario) was used to gain insights. Of novelty are the ethnographic insights of an example translation procedure as well as the methodological approach of the translation procedure itself. This paper reports the findings from this exercise concerning the practicalities of applying such a technique and the observations from the expert elicitation process itself. Based on this pilot, we make two recommendations. The first is the importance of devising a strategy in projects, and research programmes, where bridging between qualitative and quantitative research activities would be most effective. The second is that observations of discussions during the expert elicitation process provide value in the provenance of the estimates for quantitative modelling purposes and provide considerations for further development of qualitative future scenarios.

Keywords

• uncertainty
• qualitative and quantitative research
• translation
• bridging
• energy systems
• expert elicitation