Impact of Company and Market Information Uncertainty on Investors' Cognitive Dissonance Regarding Earning Announcement

Abstract

ObjectiveBased on cognitive dissonance theory, investors tend to disregard earnings announcements that conflict with their emotional state. This bias causes investors to not react to good (bad) earnings news in pessimistic (optimistic) conditions. Both company information uncertainty and market uncertainty can influence investors’ reactions to earnings announcements. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the effect of company information and market uncertainty on investors’ cognitive dissonance, regarding earnings announcements.MethodsThis is an applied and descriptive-correlational study. Using the screening method, the statistical sample comprises 127 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, from 2011 to 2023. The dependent variable is the cumulative abnormal return for the five-day window [−2, +2] centered on the quarterly earnings announcement date. The independent variables are good and bad news, while the moderating variables include investors' sentiments, information, and market uncertainty. To analyze data and test hypotheses, multivariate regression models, quarterly data, and panel data with fixed effects were employed. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was utilized to create a composite sentiment index.ResultsThe results of the first hypothesis suggest that investors respond asymmetrically to good and bad news. According to the second and third hypotheses, under optimistic sentiment, investors show a strong positive reaction to good earnings news and a subdued reaction to bad news. Conversely, under pessimistic sentiment, investors react negatively to bad news and exhibit a muted response to good news. These findings confirm the presence of cognitive dissonance in both optimistic and pessimistic market sentiments. The fourth and fifth hypotheses reveal that company information uncertainty does not significantly affect the attenuation of investors’ cognitive dissonance towards earnings news. The sixth and seventh hypotheses demonstrate that reducing market uncertainty weakens investors’ muted reaction to bad earnings news in optimistic conditions but does not weaken their muted reaction to good news in pessimistic conditions.ConclusionThe cognitive dissonance in stock price reactions to earnings news is influenced by the prevailing optimistic or pessimistic sentiments in the stock market. Consequently, investors should consider market sentiments in their economic decisions. Market uncertainty has a greater impact on investors’ reactions to earnings news than company information uncertainty. During periods of pessimism, investors tend to be more critical of available information, whereas, during optimism, they are more likely to accept information in real terms. This leads to higher psychological thresholds for ‘good news in pessimistic conditions. Enhancing confidence in the capital market can mitigate these cognitive inconsistencies in investors’ reactions to earnings announcements. The current economic conditions in Iran have led to investors' difficulty in accurately assessing the fundamental value of companies due to their conservatism and lack of expertise in interpreting the economic situation. Additionally, high fluctuations in macroeconomic factors have caused market participants to overly focus on external factors, thereby reducing attention to internal company factors.

Keywords

• investor sentiment
• cognitive dissonance
• company information uncertainty
• market uncertainty