ITM Web of Conferences (Jan 2020)

Modeling the dynamics of population immunity to influenza in Russian cities

  • Leonenko Vasiliy N.,
  • Danilenko Daria M.

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1051/itmconf/20203103001
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 31
p. 03001

Abstract

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Prediction models which will explicitly include the immunity levels of the population are required to plan effective measures for the containment of seasonal epidemics of influenza. The aim of the current work is to develop an approach to herd immunity dynamics modeling, with the long–term goal of employing it as a part of multicomponent model of influenza incidence dynamics. Based on serological studies performed for 52 Russian cities and 2 virus strains (A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2)) in 11 years period, we propose statistical models which allow to analyze and predict the strain–specific immunity dynamics.