Zhongguo quanke yixue (Jul 2022)
Cancer Mortality and Trend among Community-living Residents in Central Pudong New Area, Shanghai, 2007—2020
Abstract
Background The percentage of older population of the total population is increasing in developed areas of developing countries, and the impact and contribution of population composition factors towards cancer mortality are still unclear. Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trend of cancer mortality among community-living residents in central Pudong New Area of Shanghai from 2007 to 2020. Methods From January to December 2021, we retrospectively collected the death data during 2007 to 2020 of registered permanent residents living in Dongming Road Community of Pudong New Area from the all-cause death monitoring database, and population composition data from Pudong New Area Public Security Bureau. We used the crude mortality rate (CMR) , standardized mortality rate (SMR, with reference to the SMR of the general Chinese population in 2010) , and average annual percent change (AAPC) to analyze the status and trends of cancer mortality, and used the decomposition method to estimate the contribution rates of demographic and non-demographic factors to the change of cancer mortality. Results From 2007 to 2020, a total of 2 446 cancer-induced deaths were reported by the Dongming Road Community, accounting for 28.48% of the total reported deaths (8 589 cases) . The CMR of cancers was 268.56/105, in which the CMR due to lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and gastric cancer was 69.61/105, 33.05/105 and 31.84/105, respectively. The SMR of cancers was 71.46/105 , in which the SMR due to lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and gastric cancer was 33.12/105, 15.46/105, and 15.29/105, respectively. During this period, the CMR for cancers among men, women and the whole population remained stable (Z=1.82, -0.54, 0.87, P>0.05) . The CMR and SMR in men were higher than those in women (u=6.69, P<0.001; Z=-13.22, P<0.001) . The SMR in men showed a downward trend (AAPC=-1.80%, Z=-2.19, P<0.05) , while in women, it remained stable (Z=-1.63, P>0.05) . As in the whole population, it showed a downward trend year by year (AAPC=-1.73%, Z=-3.09, P=0.010) . Furthermore, the CMR for cancers in those aged 65-79 showed a downward trend gradually (AAPC=-4.17%, Z=-1.80, P<0.01) . The difference between the CMR of cancers during 2007—2013 and that during 2014—2020 was 3.80/105. The added value of demographic factors to mortality was 28.97/105, with a contribution rate of 53.51%. And the added value of non-demographic factors to mortality -25.17/105, with a contribution rate of 46.49%. Conclusion In Dongming Road Community from 2007 to 2020, both SMRs for cancers in the whole population and male residents demonstrated a downward trend, and the CMR for cancers in those aged 65-79 demonstrated a year-by-year downward trend. Older age may be the major demographic factor contributing to the stability of CMR of cancers.
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