Technical Analysis of the Indonesian Stock Market with Gated Recurrent Unit and Temporal Convolutional Network

Abstract

Big data is essential in the age of 4.0 industry as it becomes the basis of decision making. Deep learning research in the last few years has been proven effective in understanding complex big data patterns, especially in the finance sector. The rapid growth of the Indonesian stock market in the last 20 years, which was driven by globalization, prompted fluctuation in the Bursa Efek Jakarta (JKSE) which was influenced by stock prices, commodity prices, and exchange rate. This study identifies the main indicators of Indonesian stock market crisis, applies and compares deep learning models, particularly Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), in predicting stock prices. This study identified 20 JKSE crisis points between the 2002-2023 period with average return value at around -6%. All variables correlated positively with JKSE, with SET.BK as the highest correlated variable in lag 0. The American and European stock market, commodity price, and exchange rate tend to show a pattern opposite to the JKSE crisis. Predictor variables such as STI, HIS, KLSE, KS11, SET.BK, PSEI.PS, RUT, and USDIDR are chosen based on significant cross correlation and average return plot. Hyperparameter tuning and cross validation within a 3 years window concluded that the GRU model is accurate and efficient, with RMSE value at 43.35568 and MAE value at 33.66909 in the validation data.

Keywords

• gru, jkse, stock market crisis, tcn