Application of five continuous distributions and evaluation of wind potential at five stations using normal distribution

Abstract

Application of Weibull distribution in a generalized way to estimate wind potential cannot always be advisable. The novelty of this work is to estimate wind potential using Normal probability density function. A comparison of five probability distributions namely Normal, Gamma, Chi-Squared, Weibull, and Rayleigh was done using three performance evaluation criteria. Four years (2015–2018) hourly wind data at 50 m height at five stations near the coastline of Pakistan was used. It was found that normal distribution gives the best fit at each of these stations and against each evaluation criterion followed by Weibull distribution while Rayleigh distribution gives the poorest fit. Further energy generation by fifteen turbine models was calculated and GE 45.7 was found the best in terms of amount of energy generation and capacity factors while Vestas V42 shows the worst. However, GE/1.5 SL is the most economical while Vestas V63 is the least. Among five locations, Shahbandar is the best potential site while Manora is the least.