Scenario approach to the assessment of development prospects of the Russian regions

Abstract

The article describes the features of building and assessment of spatial development scenarios in long-term forecasts. The author used the scenario approach for qualitative and quantitative assessment of alternative strategies for regional development within the framework of the macroeconomic forecast for the development of the Russian economy. Further, the author analyzed the experience of developing spatial scenarios for the EU countries and Russia. Next, the longterm regional trends are presented, which, due to the high inertia of space, will determine spatial development in the future. The author also describes modern problems that significantly impact the choice of strategies for the regions. Prospects for spatial development the author assessed in the framework of three forecast scenarios. For two options of the macroeconomic forecast, the author calculated quantitative estimates of the spatial development parameters characterizing the scenarios. Relevant calculations the author performed using macroeconomic and interregional forecasting and analytical models. Finally, the author showed the advantages of the scenario of balanced growth from the standpoint of implementing national goals of social and economic development.

Keywords

• пространственное развитие
• долгосрочные тренды
• приоритеты пространственного развития
• консервативный сценарий
• сценарий опоры на агломерации
• сбалансированный сценарий
• структурно-инвестиционная политика