Modelling optimal allocation of resources in the context of an incurable disease.

Abstract

Nodding syndrome has affected and led to the deaths of children between the ages of 5 and 15 in Northern Uganda since 2009. There is no reliable explanation of the disease, and currently the only treatment is through a nutritional programme of vitamins, combined with medication to prevent symptoms. In the absence of a proper medical treatment, we develop a dynamic compartmental model to plan the management of the syndrome and to curb its effects. We use incidence data from 2012 and 2013 from Pader, Lamwo and Kitgum regions of Uganda to parameterize the model. The model is then used to look at how to best plan the nutritional programme in terms of first getting children on to the programme through outreach, and then making sure they remain on the programme, through follow-up. For the current outbreak of nodding disease, we estimate that about half of available resources should be put into outreach. We show how to optimize the balance between outreach and follow-up in this particular example, and provide a general methodology for allocating resources in similar situations. Given the uncertainty of parameter estimates in such situations, we perform a robustness analysis to identify the best investment strategy. Our analysis offers a way of using available data to determine the best investment strategy of controlling nodding syndrome.