Stock Price Volatility Estimation Using Regime Switching Technique-Empirical Study on the Indian Stock Market

Abstract

Volatility is the degree of variation in the stock price over time. The stock price is volatile due to many factors, such as demand, supply, economic policy, and company earnings. Investing in a volatile market is riskier for stock traders. Most of the existing work considered Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture volatility, but this model fails to capture when the volatility is very high. This paper aims to estimate the stock price volatility using the Markov regime-switching GARCH (MSGARCH) and SETAR model. The model selection was carried out using the Akaike-Informations-Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian-Information Criteria (BIC) metric. The performance of the model is evaluated using the Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) metric. We have found that volatility estimation using the MSGARCH model performed better than the SETAR model. The experiments considered the Indian stock market data.

Keywords

• MSGARCH
• GARCH
• conditional distribution
• stock price
• heterogeneous