Specialized and Geographic Distribution of Specialists in Iran in 2016 and its Estimates in 2026

Abstract

Background and Objectives: The distribution of specialists is important in two ways: geographical and specialty. In this study, we provided a description of the distribution of specialists in Iran in 2016 and its estimates in 2026. Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was conducted in 2016 to estimate the number of specialists in 2026. Data were gathered through a census of specialists working in each of 439 cities in the country, including those in public and private sectors. Coefficient of variation and the number of specialists in 100000 populations were applied as distribution measures. Results: In the year 2016, there were 46 specialists per 100,000 populations, and it is estimated that considering the full-time equivalent index of 1.2, 63 specialists per 100,000 populations will be required in the year 2026. The highest and lowest ratio of specialists per population in the year 2016 was reported in Tehran (89 per 100,000 populations) and Jiroft (10 per 100,000 populations), respectively. The gynecologist group and geriatric specialists group were the largest (4747 specialists) and smallest group (4 specialists), respectively. Conclusion: There was a considerable disparity between different regions of the country in terms of access to specialists. Furthermore, the ratio of specialist per population in different specialty groups varied from one province to another. Upon implementation of the Iran Roadmap, according to 2026 estimates, this dispersion will be reduced to some extent; however, part of the dispersion related to the regionalisation pilicy.

Keywords

• specialists
• distribution
• estimation
• coefficient of variation