Ensemble meteorological reconstruction using circulation analogues of 1781–1785

Abstract

This paper uses a method of atmospheric flow analogues to reconstruct an ensemble of atmospheric variables (namely sea-level pressure, surface temperature and wind speed) between 1781 and 1785. The properties of this ensemble are investigated and tested against observations of temperature. The goal of the paper is to assess whether the atmospheric circulation during the Laki volcanic eruption (in 1783) and the subsequent winter were similar to the conditions that prevailed in the winter 2009/2010 and during spring 2010. We find that the 3 months following the Laki eruption in June 1783 barely had analogues in 2010. The cold winter of 1783/1784 yielded circulation analogues in 2009/2010. The reconstructed surface temperature over land bears significant correlations with local observations, although the amplitude of the reconstruction is weaker.