A Sample-Rebalanced Outlier-Rejected <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$k$ </tex-math></inline-formula>-Nearest Neighbor Regression Model for Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting

Abstract

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a fundamental and challenging task due to the stochastic dynamics of the traffic flow, which is often imbalanced and noisy. This paper presents a sample-rebalanced and outlier-rejected k-nearest neighbor regression model for short-term traffic flow forecasting. In this model, we adopt a new metric for the evolutionary traffic flow patterns, and reconstruct balanced training sets by relative transformation to tackle the imbalance issue. Then, we design a hybrid model that considers both local and global information to address the limited size of the training samples. We employ four real-world benchmark datasets often used in such tasks to evaluate our model. Experimental results show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art parametric and non-parametric models.

Keywords

• Intelligent transportation systems
• road transportation
• time series analysis
• stochastic processes