A temporal and spatial analysis of incidence and mortality of lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal cancer in a Northeastern Brazilian state

Abstract

Abstract Lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal (LOCP) cancer is a major public health concern in low- and middle-income countries, including Brazil. This study examines incidence and mortality trends in Sergipe, analyzing disparities by sex, age, and health regions. Data from population-based cancer registries and mortality records were analyzed across three periods: 1996–2005, 2006–2012, 2013–2013 (incidence), and 1996–2005, 2006–2012, 2013–2022 (mortality). Malignant neoplasms (ICD-10 codes C00-C14, excluding C07 and C08) were included. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 were calculated, with trends assessed using Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average APC (AAPC) via Joinpoint regression. Spatial analysis utilized QGIS and Terraview. Male incidence rates were 12.8 (1996–2005) and 13.3 (2006–2012). Female rates declined from 4.8 to 3.4. Mortality rates increased from 3.8 (1996–2005) to 6.1 (2013–2022). Incidence remained stable among men, while women experienced a 2.3% annual decline, notably at ages 65–74 (APC=-3.9%). Male mortality surged from 1996 to 2005 (APC = 16.1%) before stabilizing; female mortality remained stable. The mortality-to-incidence ratio rose from 0.30 (men) and 0.21 (women) to 0.54 (men) and 0.38 (women). Geographic disparities suggest inequities in healthcare access. Targeted interventions are critical, including equitable healthcare distribution, early detection programs, and lifestyle modifications to curb tobacco and alcohol use.

Keywords

• Oropharyngeal neoplasms
• Incidence
• Mortality
• Spatial analysis
• Public health