Sensitivity Analysis of Strong Cyclone Track Deflection over Isolated Topography: Exploring the Impact of Vortex Impinging Direction and Strength

Abstract

This study performs a sensitivity analysis of strong cyclone track deflection over isolated topography, exploring the impacts of vortex impinging direction and strength. A dynamic model investigates track adjustments of cyclonic vortices on a β-plane. The study derives a meridional adjustment velocity (MAV) for vortex motion and examines variations in track patterns under different flow conditions. Results reveal an S-shaped pattern in most tracks and significant deflections when the vortex passes over high-rise terrain. Larger direction angles of the vortex result in more pronounced deflections attributed to the terrain loop effect induced by the strong topographic β effect. Adjacent vortex paths impinging from the south converge on the leeward side, improving prediction accuracy, while vortices crossing from the north diverge, reducing prediction accuracy. This study offers valuable insights into uncertainties associated with path prediction.

Keywords

• tropical cyclone
• path prediction
• track deflection
• dynamic model
• sensitivity analysis
• cyclone-terrain interaction