Future projections of storm surges and associated coastal inundation along the east coast of India

Abstract

This study aims to analyze several aspects of storm surges and associated coastal inundation along the east coast of India. The current study utilizes historical cyclone tracks over the past five decades and, synthetic tracks are projected for the next 100 years to develop a comprehensive analysis of the storm surges in India. The impact of climate change on cyclone path and intensity is also considered. The ADCIRC model is used to compute storm surge heights and associated coastal inundation for historical and future cyclone tracks. An in-depth analysis is carried out using composite maps explaining the storm surge characteristics at various coastal locations. The novelty of this study lies in the comprehensive analysis of potential storm surges and associated coastal flooding related to exaggerated cyclones that are expected in a changing climate scenario. The outcome of the study is beneficial to storm surge operational centers and disaster management applications. HIGHLIGHTS Synthetic tracks were projected for the next 100 years using Monte-Carlo simulations in climate change scenarios.; Storm surge heights and associated inland inundation are computed for the historical cyclones and validated.; Storm surge projections and associated inundation are estimated.; A comprehensive analysis of storm surges and associated inundation is carried out using historical values and future projections.;

Keywords

• adcirc
• climate change
• coastal inundation
• historical and synthetic tracks
• monte-carlo simulations
• storm surge