The Changing Role of USDA Inventory Reports in Livestock Markets

Abstract

Using traditional price volatility tests, we find that the market impact of USDA Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs reports largely disappeared after 2000. In contrast, using market surprise tests, we find no evidence that the impact of Cattle on Feed information changed significantly after 2000. The evidence is mixed for Hogs and Pigs reports using market surprise tests, with market inventory information increasing in value and breeding inventory decreasing. The contrasting results can be explained by increasing market concentration in cattle and hogs leading to smaller market surprises and smaller futures price reactions.

Keywords

• announcement effects
• cattle
• concentration
• futures markets
• hogs
• informational value
• price reaction