Techno-economic analysis of residential building heating strategies for cost-effective upgrades in European cities
Fei Yu,
Wei Feng,
Maohui Luo,
Kairui You,
Minda Ma,
Rui Jiang,
Jiawei Leng,
Liqun Sun
Affiliations
Fei Yu
Institute of Technology for Carbon Neutrality, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 90-2112, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; Southeast University, Architecture Department, Nanjing 210008, China; Beijing University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture, Civil and Transportation Engineering, Beijing 100124, China
Wei Feng
Institute of Technology for Carbon Neutrality, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 90-2112, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA; Faculty of Materials Science and Energy Engineering, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China; Corresponding author
Maohui Luo
Tongji University, School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai 201804, China
Kairui You
Institute of Technology for Carbon Neutrality, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
Minda Ma
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 90-2112, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Rui Jiang
Institute of Technology for Carbon Neutrality, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
Jiawei Leng
Southeast University, Architecture Department, Nanjing 210008, China; Nanjing Urban Planning Design Institute of Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Liqun Sun
Institute of Technology for Carbon Neutrality, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
Summary: The energy crisis in Europe requires cost-effective evaluations of residential heating strategies to reduce costs and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This research studied different heating systems in China and Europe. Based on heating energy surveys, simulation models were developed and further expanded for European cities. Monte Carlo analyses were conducted to understand the heating demand and utility costs in Rome, Madrid, and Athens. The sensitivity analysis found that electrifying heating systems with heat pumps can reduce household heating costs and mitigate European cities’ dependence on natural gas. However, the high upfront investment may hinder the cost-effective deployment of high-performance heat pump systems. Building envelope retrofits can also provide plausible energy savings despite relatively long payback periods. Financial incentive analyses were conducted to quantify how fiscal measures can improve technologies’ techno-economic performance. Finally, the paper provided policy recommendations on future building cost-effective retrofits and heating electrification in Europe.
