Risk Prediction and Variable Analysis of Pine Wilt Disease by a Maximum Entropy Model

Abstract

Pine wilt disease (PWD) has caused a huge damage to pine forests. PWD is mainly transmitted by jumping diffusion, affected by insect vectors and human activities. Since the results of climate change, pine wood nematode (PWN—Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) has begun invading the temperate zones and higher elevation area. In this situation, predicting the distribution of PWD is an important part of the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. The research established the Maxent model to conduct a multi-angle, fine-scale prediction on the risk distribution of PWD. We adjusted two parameters, regularization multiplier (RM) and feature combination (FC), to optimize the model. Influence factors were selected and divided into natural, landscape, and human variables, according to the physical characteristics and spread rules of PWD. The middle-suitability regions and high-suitability regions are distributed in a Y-shape, and divided the study area into three parts. The high-suitability areas are concentrated in the region with high temperature, low elevation, and intensive precipitation. Among the selected variables, natural factors still play the most important role in the distribution of the disease, and human factors and landscape factors are also worked well. The permutation importance of factors is different due to differences in climate and other conditions in different regions. The multi-angle, fine-scale model can help provide useful information for effective control and tactical management of PWD.

Keywords

• pine wilt disease
• maximum entropy model
• influencing factors
• suitable probability