Assessment and Comparison of Six Machine Learning Models in Estimating Evapotranspiration over Croplands Using Remote Sensing and Meteorological Factors

Abstract

Accurate estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) over croplands on a regional scale can provide useful information for agricultural management. The hybrid ET model that combines the physical framework, namely the Penman-Monteith equation and machine learning (ML) algorithms, have proven to be effective in ET estimates. However, few studies compared the performances in estimating ET between multiple hybrid model versions using different ML algorithms. In this study, we constructed six different hybrid ET models based on six classical ML algorithms, namely the K nearest neighbor algorithm, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting algorithm, artificial neural network (ANN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), using observed data of 17 eddy covariance flux sites of cropland over the globe. Each hybrid model was assessed to estimate ET with ten different input data combinations. In each hybrid model, the ML algorithm was used to model the stomatal conductance (Gs), and then ET was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation, along with the ML-based Gs. The results showed that all hybrid models can reasonably reproduce ET of cropland with the models using two or more remote sensing (RS) factors. The results also showed that although including RS factors can remarkably contribute to improving ET estimates, hybrid models except for LSTM using three or more RS factors were only marginally better than those using two RS factors. We also evidenced that the ANN-based model exhibits the optimal performance among all ML-based models in modeling daily ET, as indicated by the lower root-mean-square error (RMSE, 18.67–21.23 W m−2) and higher correlations coefficient (r, 0.90–0.94). ANN are more suitable for modeling Gs as compared to other ML algorithms under investigation, being able to provide methodological support for accurate estimation of cropland ET on a regional scale.

Keywords

• evapotranspiration
• remote sensing
• machine learning method
• Penman-Monteith equation