Dynamical analysis of COVID-19 and tuberculosis co-infection using mathematical modelling approach

Abstract

Both tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 are infectious diseases with similar clinical manifestations, which mainly affect the lungs. Clinical studies have revealed that the immunosuppressive drugs taken by COVID-19 patients can affect the immunological functions in the body, which can cause the patients to contract active TB via a new infection or reinfection, and the co-infection of the two diseases portends a clinical complexity in the management of the patients. Thus, this paper presents a mathematical model to study the dynamics and control of COVID-19-TB co-infection. The full model of the co-infection is split into two submodels, namely, the TB-only and the COVID-19-only models. The equilibria of the disease-free and endemic situations of the two sub-models are shown to be globally asymptotically stable when their control reproduction numbers $ R_{o}^{TV}, R_{o}^{CV} < 1 $ and $ \tilde {R}_{o}^{TV}, \tilde {R}_{o}^{CV} > 1 $, respectively. However, the disease-free equilibrium of the co-infection model was found to lose its global stability property when the reproduction number $ R_{o}^{F} < 1 $, therefore exhibiting a backward bifurcation. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the associated reproduction number of the full model has been performed by using the Latin hypercube sampling/Pearson rank correlation coefficient (LHS/PRCC) method. The rate of transmission of COVID-19 and the proportions of individuals vaccinated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and against COVID-19 were found to be highly significant in the spread and control of COVID-19-TB co-infection. Furthermore, the simulation results show that decreasing the COVID-19 transmission rate and increasing the proportion of people vaccinated with BCG and against COVID-19 can lower the number of cases of COVID-19-TB co-infection. Therefore, measures to reduce the transmission rate and the provision of adequate resources to increase the proportions of people vaccinated against TB and COVID-19 should be implemented to minimize the cases of co-infection.

Keywords

• covid-19-tb co-infection
• covid-19
• tb
• vaccination
• equilibrium state