Ecological Indicators (Mar 2021)
The transmission mechanism of household lifestyle to energy consumption from the input-output subsystem perspective: China as an example
Abstract
In recent years, China's rapid economic development and steady growth of household consumption have contributed to the continuous growth of energy consumption. In addition to considering direct household energy consumption, the indirect effects of people's consumption activities on energy consumption in other productive sectors can't be ignored. According to the input-output analysis framework and consumer lifestyle analysis, this paper mainly studies the direct and indirect consumption of energy by Chinese household consumption ways and the relationship between energy structure and lifestyle. From the perspective of structural analysis, the input-output subsystem model (scale component, own internal component, feed-back component and spillover component) is used to analyze the energy supply and demand relations among 36 sectors of the national economy related to the lives of household in 2012 and 2017, revealing the change trend and transmission mechanism. This paper also focuses on the impact of household consumption ways on energy consumption of industrial sector and changing consumer lifestyles on energy saving, meanwhile it also forecasts China's future household energy consumption under four scenarios. The results show that in 2012 and 2017, total consumption of energy which is influenced by household consumption ways in China is 28461.82 PJ and 44759.96 PJ, respectively, accounting for 26.9% and 34.1% of total consumption of final energy. The indirect energy consumption is 1.3 times and 1.65 times of direct, respectively. The coal consumption accounts for the majority of indirect energy consumption. The smelting and pressing of ferrous metals is the industrial sector which is most affected by the household consumption ways. The scale component, own internal component, feed-back component and spillover component has accounted for 18.5%, 1.3%, 0.1% and 80.0%, from 17.5%, 2.0%, 0.2% and 80.3% of energy consumption in total, respectively. Under the four scenario development modes (NN, NA, LN and LA), it is predicted that the indirect energy consumption in household life in 2025 is 43740.56PJ, 34922.93PJ, 39149.37PJ and 31257.28PJ, respectively. The implementation of low-carbon consumption mode and the accelerated decline of energy intensity will help to reduce energy consumption.
