Prediction of future and current distribution of Phoenix theophrasti Gr. with using MaxEnt model and its utilizition for planting design

Abstract

Nowadays utilizing machine learning techniques is an effective way for modeling species distributions areas and niches. Analyzing of the endemic species on account of how they are affected from the global warming is crucial because of future planning issues. It is possible to guess potential distributions areas in the future and current ones with regard to future climate change scenarios with MaxEnt program with combining presence data and layers creating by using bioclimatic data. The aim of this study is to determine of the potential distribution areas of the Phoenix theophrasti Gr. which is an important species for landscape architecture discipline and naturally existing in Crete and our country and how these potential distribution areas effected from the global warming. The presence data of the species and bioclimatic data with 30 arc second resolution from WordClim database are clipped in accordance to the borders of the study area and potential distribution areas are determined processing with maximum entropy algorithm. Furthermore, on account of determining the effects of the global warming, the future distribution areas have modelled with regard to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 years according to The Community Climate System Model (CCSM version 4) creating based on IPPC 5 report. As a result, the suitable areas as 8.248 km2, the more suitable ones 23.330 km2 and totally 31.578 km2 area have been calculated. Besides, some missing areas were determined in terms of the potential distribution areas of the species in the future according to the climate change scenario of the CCSM4.

Keywords

• species distribution model
• maxent
• phoenix theophrasti gr.
• principal component analysis
• tür dağılım modeli
• maxent
• phoenix theophrasti gr.
• temel bileşen analizi