Mitigating future climate change effects on wheat and soybean yields in Central region of Madhya Pradesh by shifting sowing dates

Abstract

The present work focuses on (1) estimation of future yield of wheat and soybean crop under RCPs scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 using FAO AquaCrop yield simulating model and (2) assessment of shifting planting date as adaptation measure to mitigate climate change impact for Sehore district, Madhya Pradesh. Statistically downscaled General Circulation Model CanESM2 data was used as input to AquaCrop for generation of future data. The AquaCrop yield model was first checked for its suitability and accuracy in prediction of yield for years 2000–2015, model nash sutcliffe efficiency 0.79, 0.84, RMSE 300.7, 104.4 and coefficient of determination (R2) 0.91, 0.88 were obtained for wheat and soybean crops, respectively. The results depicts that RCP 8.5 shows the highest impact with reduction in wheat and soybean yield for projected year 2080. Under the changed climate, shifting planting date from of wheat from 15th November to 30th November and 1st July to 10th July for soybean resulted in least decline in crop yields and surfaced as a practical adaptation measure for sustaining future yields.

Keywords

• AquaCrop
• general circulation model,
• soybean
• wheat