Time series prediction model for the tourism demand of the Cubanacán Hotel Chain

Abstract

The tourist demand has a vital influence on the planning and projection of the decision makers in this activity. In this sense, prognosising the tourist demand, thus integrating the productive chains to the rest of the socio-economic activities of the production and service processes, becomes an unavoidable tool. The objective of this work is to elaborate a prognosis model for the tourist demand through the use of techniques of temporary series, which allows predicting the behavior of tourism, sustained in the Box-Jenkins methodology and which supports the process of decision making in Cubanacán Hotel Chain of Pinar del Río, Cuba. It was possible to formulate a rigorous model with the use of statistical-mathematical methods as guiding axes of the research; also, it was modeled the tourist demand until December 2019.

Keywords

• demanda
• metodología box-jenkins
• series temporales
• turismo