Stress on Real Income in Russian Regions Under the Pandemic and Sanctions

Abstract

The study is devoted to assessing the stress of real incomes of the population (regarding wages) and the real financial result of enterprises in the Russian regions during the pandemic and sanctions shocks of 2017–2023. We used a number of methods of deflation, elimination of seasonal and random components in the dynamics of indicators. To assess the stress level, a stress index, developed by the author earlier, which is a moving (with a one-month step) difference between the standard deviation and the average value of the annual growth rate of each indicator under study, as well as a way to decompose it by source, was used. Integral real income stress index was calculated as the sum of two particular stress indices normalized by the method of equivalent variances on the scale of the entire spatiotemporal sample. As a result of the study, similarities and differences in the reaction of real incomes of the population in regions and federal districts under the impact of pre-pandemic, pandemic and new sanctions shocks were revealed, as well as different reactions of wages and financial results of the enterprises in them, certain spatial effects, areas of stability and increased risk. It has been established that the reduction of the level of real income stress across the country occurs due to the greater stability of the growth rates of the indicators under consideration in regions with high incomes, while the positive influence of the effect of interregional diversification has not received empirical confirmation

Keywords

• real wages
• real financial result
• shocks
• pandemic
• sanctions
• stress index
• russian regions
• rf federal districts