Modeling third waves of Covid-19 spread with piecewise differential and integral operators: Turkey, Spain and Czechia

Abstract

Several collected data representing the spread of some infectious diseases have demonstrated that the spread does not really exhibit homogeneous spread. Clear examples can include the spread of Spanish flu and Covid-19. Collected data depicting numbers of daily new infections in the case of Covid-19 from countries like Turkey, Spain show three waves with different spread patterns, a clear indication of crossover behaviors. While modelers have suggested many mathematical models to depicting these behaviors, it becomes clear that their mathematical models cannot really capture the crossover behaviors, especially passage from deterministic resetting to stochastics. Very recently Atangana and Seda have suggested a concept of piecewise modeling consisting in defining a differential operator piece-wisely. The idea was first applied in chaos and outstanding patterns were captured. In this paper, we extend this concept to the field of epidemiology with the aim to depict waves with different patterns. Due to the novelty of this concept, a different approach to insure the existence and uniqueness of system solutions are presented. A piecewise numerical approach is presented to derive numerical solutions of such models. An illustrative example is presented and compared with collected data from 3 different countries including Turkey, Spain and Czechia. The obtained results let no doubt for us to conclude that this concept is a new window that will help mankind to better understand nature.

Keywords

• Piecewise modeling
• Piecewise existence and uniqueness
• Piecewise numerical scheme
• Covid-19 model
• Fractional operators and stochastic approach