Dynamic prolonged effects of crime on tourism demand for Thailand National Parks

Abstract

This study examines how past crime interacts dynamically with word-of-mouth (WOM) recommendations to affect tourism demand, using a panel dataset of 132 Thailand National Parks from 2010 to 2019. Using the system-Generalized Method of Moments approach, our findings demonstrate that crimes at tourist destinations not only have an immediate impact on tourism demand but also prolong ramification by diminishing the beneficial effect of WOM recommendations. This implies that the effect of WOM on destination choice does not remain constant over time but varies with changes in the conditions of personal safety at the destination. Further analysis disaggregated by the severity of crime demonstrates that Thai tourists are most sensitive to the occurrence of life-threatening crime, followed by property crime and violent crime. In addition, life-threatening crimes diminish the positive effect of WOM recommendations by the most.

Keywords

• crime
• domestic tourism demand
• national park
• system GMM
• word-of-mouth