Growth Rate Potential of Juvenile Sockeye Salmon in Warmer and Cooler Years on the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf

Abstract

A spatially explicit bioenergetics model was used to predict juvenile sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka growth rate potential (GRP) on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during years with cooler and warmer spring sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Annual averages of juvenile sockeye salmon GRP were generally lower among years with cooler SSTs and generally higher in offshore than nearshore regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf during years with warmer SSTs. Juvenile sockeye salmon distribution was significantly (P<.05) related to GRP and their prey densities were positively related to spring SST (P<.05). Juvenile sockeye salmon GRP was more sensitive to changes in prey density and observed SSTs during years when spring SSTs were warmer (2002, 2003, and 2005). Our results suggest that the pelagic productivity on the eastern Bering Sea shelf was higher during years with warmer spring SSTs and highlight the importance of bottom-up control on the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem.