Estimated productivity of sugarcane through the Agro-Ecological Zone method

Abstract

ABSTRACT The estimate of the potential sugarcane productivity through agroclimatic models aids in the agricultural planning of the crops and the quantification of the yield for a given region. For these estimated values to be considered robust there is a need for validating the performance of such models in different areas and agricultural varieties. Hence, the aim of this study was to validate the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) method with fifteen sugarcane varieties in the region of the Vale do São Patrício, state of Goiás, Brazil. We evaluated the data referring to the cane-plant (one-and-a-half-year sugarcane), as well as the first and second sugarcane ratoons (both with one-year cycles) in an irrigated and dry farming system. The productivities obtained in dry farming were corrected due to the occurrence of a water deficit in the crop. The results indicated that the AEZ method presented productivity estimates more satisfactory for the one-year cultivation cycles (ratoon cycles) for all varieties studied, with the model adjusting best to the CTC15 variety (RMSE = 8.70 t ha-1; MAE = 6.05 t ha-1; d = 0.99).

Keywords

• bioenergy
• water deficit
• water balance
• agricultural planning
• harvest forecast