Integrated assessment of flood and drought hazards for current and future climate in a tributary of the Mekong river basin

Abstract

Projecting floods and droughts characteristics under climate change is important to formulate an integrative management plan and enhance resiliency of society. However, studies that provide the integration of floods-drought hazards are scarce within literature. This study assessed flood and drought hazards separately and together for future climate in the Mun River basin, a tributary of the Mekong river. A non-modelling and multi-variate approach was used to assess flood and drought hazard respectively. Climate model ensemble suggests that the area under ‘high’ and ‘very high’ drought hazard level will increase from 27% and 4% during baseline period (1981–2010) to 43% and 37%, respectively, during near-future period (2021–2050). Similarly, an increase in ‘high’ and ‘very high’ flood hazard from 11% and 22% during baseline period to 16% and 24% during near-future period is projected. When both hazards are considered together, the total hazard is projected to increase by 155% in the near-future period. 76% of the catchment during the near future period will have combined hazard level from ‘medium’ to ‘very high’ compared to the 30% during the baseline period. The research presents a grim outlook on for the basin, with the area at risk from both hydro-meteorological hazards. HIGHLIGHTS Individual and combined flood and drought hazard assessment for the near-future period.; Non-modelling approach for flood and a multi-variate approach for drought hazards used.; Area under high and very high drought hazards up from 30 to 80% in the near future.; Area under high and very high flood hazards up from 33 to 40% in the near future.; Area under the combined hazard projected to increase by 155% across the catchment.;

Keywords

• climate change
• hydro-meteorological hazards
• multi criteria decision analysis
• geographical information systems
• multi-variate approach
• mun river basin