Revista Brasileira de Terapia Intensiva (Dec 2010)
Análise de um modelo de risco pré-operatório específico para cirurgia valvar e a relação com o tempo de internação em unidade de terapia intensiva Analysis of specific pre-operative model to valve surgery and relationship with the length of stay in intensive care unit
Abstract
OBJETIVOS: O tempo de internação prolongado após cirurgia cardíaca é associado a resultados imediatos ruins e aumento dos custos. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o poder preditor do escore de Ambler na previsão do tempo de internação em unidade de terapia intensiva. MÉTODOS: Estudo de coorte retrospectiva com dados coletados de 110 pacientes submetidos à cirurgia de troca valvar isolada ou associada. Os valores do escore aditivo e logístico do escore de Ambler e as performances preditivas do escore de Ambler foram obtidos por meio da curva ROC. A estadia em unidade de terapia intensiva definiu-se como normal 3 dias. A área sobre as curvas dos modelos aditivo e logístico foram comparadas por meio do teste de Hanley-MacNeil. RESULTADOS: A média de permanência em unidade de terapia intensiva foi de 4,2 dias. Sessenta e três pacientes pertenciam ao sexo masculino. O modelo logístico apresentou área sob a curva ROC de 0,73 e 0,79 para internação >3 dias e 3 dias e OBJECTIVES: The length of stay after prolonged cardiac surgery has been associated with poor immediate outcomes and increased costs. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive power of the Ambler Score to anticipate the length of stay in the intensive care unit. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study based on data collected from 110 patients undergoing valve replacement surgery alone or in combination with other procedures. Additive and logistic Ambler Scores were obtained and their predictive performances calculated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve. The normal length stay in the intensive care unit was assumed to be 3 days. The areas under the receiver operating curves for both the additive and logistic models were compared using the Hanley-MacNeil test. RESULTS: The mean intensive care unit length of stay was 4.2 days. Sixty-three patients were male. The logistic model showed areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 and 0.79 for hospitalization > 3 days and 3 days and < 3 days, respectively, a poor discriminative power. CONCLUSIONS: In our database, prolonged length of stay in the intensive care unit was positively correlated with the logistic Ambler score. The performance of the logistic Ambler Score had good discriminative power for correlation with the intensive care unit length of stay.
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