Exploring Bifurcation in the Compartmental Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Transmission

Abstract

This study proposes and theoretically substantiates a unique mathematical model for predicting the spread of infectious diseases using the example of COVID-19. The model is described by a special system of autonomous differential equations, which has scientific novelty for cases of complex dynamics of disease transmission. The adequacy of the model is confirmed by testing on the example of the spread of COVID-19 in one of the largest regions of Ukraine, both in terms of population and area. The practical novelty emerges through its versatile application in real-world contexts, guiding organizational decisions and public health responses. The model’s capacity to facilitate system functioning evaluation and identify significant parameters underlines its potential for proactive management and effective response in the evolving landscape of infectious diseases.

Keywords

• epidemic process
• COVID-19
• compartmental model
• nonlinear analysis