Different life stage, different risks: Thermal performance across the life cycle of Salmo trutta and Salmo salar in the face of climate change

Abstract

Abstract Extending assessments of climate change‐induced range shifts via correlative species distribution models by including species traits is crucial for conservation planning. However, comprehensive assessments of future distribution scenarios incorporating responses of biotic factors are poorly investigated. Therefore, the aim of our study was to extend the understanding about the combined usage of species traits data and species distribution models for different life stages and distribution scenarios. We combine global model predictions for the 2050s and thermal performances of Salmo trutta and Salmo salar under consideration of different life stages (adults, juveniles, eggs), timeframes (monthly, seasonally, yearly), and dispersal scenarios (no dispersal, free dispersal, restricted dispersal). We demonstrate that thermal performances of different life stages will either increase or decrease for certain time periods. Model predictions and thermal performances imply range declines and poleward shifts. Dispersal to suitable habitats will be an important factor mitigating warming effects; however, dams may block paths to areas linked to high performances. Our results emphasize enhanced inclusion of critical periods for species and proper dispersal solutions in conservation planning.

Keywords

• climate change
• global
• life stages
• species distribution modeling
• species traits
• thermal performance curves