Molecular epidemiology and phylodynamic analysis of enterovirus 71 in Beijing, China, 2009–2019

Abstract

Abstract Background Enterovirus 71(EV71)-associated hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) decreased dramatically in Beijing from 2009 to 2019. This study was to investigate the epidemiological characteristics, evolutionary dynamics, geographic diffusion pathway, and other features of EV71 in Beijing, China. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of EV71-associated HFMD and its causative agent in Beijing, China, from 2009 to 2019. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods based on the EV71 genome were used to determine the evolution features, origin, and spatiotemporal dynamics. Positive selection sites in the VP1 gene were identified and exhibited in the tertiary structure. Bayesian birth-death skyline model was used to estimate the effective reproductive number (Re). Results EV71-associated HFMD decreased greatly in Beijing. From 2009 to 2019, EV71 strains prevalent in Beijing shared high homology in each gene segment and evolved with a rate of 4.99*10− 3 substitutions per site per year. The genetic diversity of EV71 first increased and peaked in 2012 and then decreased with fluctuations. The time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of EV71 in Beijing was estimated around 2003 when the EV71 strains were transmitted to Beijing from east China. Beijing played a crucial role in seeding EV71 to central China as well. Two residues (E145Q/G, A293S) under positive selection were detected from both the VP1 dataset and the P1 dataset. They were embedded within the loop of the VP1 capsid and were exposed externally. Mean Re estimate of EV71 in Beijing was about 1.007. Conclusion In recent years, EV71 was not the primary causative agent of HFMD in Beijing. The low Re estimate of EV71 in Beijing implied that strategies for preventing and controlling HFMD were performed effectively. Beijing and east China played a crucial role in disseminating EV71 to other regions in China.

Keywords

• Hand
• Foot and mouth disease
• Human enterovirus 71
• Epidemiology
• Phylogenetics
• Bayesian phylodynamics