Ziyuan Kexue (Jun 2024)
Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of urban growth and shrinkage in Central and Southern Liaoning: Based on the perspective of physical urban area
Abstract
[Objective] Due to the limited development of spatialization technology for socioeconomic data, previous research on the factors that affect urban shrinkage at the physical area scale of cities has mostly remained at the stage of qualitative analysis or quantitative analysis using administrative area data instead of physical area data. Breaking through the limit of spatialization of socioeconomic data within physical urban areas is the primary prerequisite for achieving quantitative analysis of influencing factors at the physical area scale. [Methods] By constructing the VANUI index and setting a comprehensive threshold, the scope of physical urban areas in Central and Southern Liaoning was determined. Based on the superposition of the slopes of univariate linear regression between the DN values of nighttime light and LandScan population grid data in the periods of 2013-2017 and 2018-2022, the physical urban areas were divided into four types: absolute growth type, negative growth type, smart shrinkage type, and absolute shrinkage type, and a spatiotemporal evolution analysis was conducted, based on the historical background of the “New Northeast Phenomenon”. By combining CRITIC and entropy weight method for equal weighting, the spatialization of data on influencing factors such as economic development level, medical service level, educational resource abundance, cultural facility density, livability of the environment, and external transportation convenience was achieved using nighttime light data and point of interest (POI) data. Finally, the GTWR model was used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of urban population growth and shrinkage during the two periods of the region. [Results] (1) The shrinking areas within cities from 2013 to 2017 in Central and Southern Liaoning were all transformed into growing areas from 2018 to 2022. (2) From 2018 to 2022, the proportion of negative growing areas within cities reached 55.80%. (3) The level of medical services, abundance of educational resources, density of cultural facilities, and livability of the environment all had a positive effect on the overall population growth in each city, but the positive effect was generally weakened in the second period. The overall negative effects of external transportation convenience and economic development level were observed during the two periods. [Conclusions] (1) The urban population shrinkage of Central and Southern Liaoning has achieved a growing transformation, and at present, all cities are more characterized by the mismatch of population, social, and economic development. (2) The multidimensional shrinkage of population, society, and economy within all cities is not common. There is a possibility of achieving growing transformation in the short term, and there are significant differences by urban hierarchy. (3) The social and economic development pains accompanied by resource depletion and industrial transformation have weakened the positive attraction of medical, educational, and cultural facility provisions and improvement of the living environment, which are highly tied to economic development, on population. (4) The development of the external transportation system currently has played a role in promoting population loss in cities.
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