Do higher house prices indicate higher safety? Price volatility risk in major cities in Taiwan

Abstract

This study investigates the housing market in Taiwan, an emerging market with relatively severe housing price inflation. Using data from the first quarter of 1991 to the second quarter of 2017 for four cities in Taiwan, this study compares the risk transmission and sources of their housing prices. The results reveal that Taipei−Taiwan’s main financial hub−has the highest house prices among the four cities but maintains the lowest risk. Thus, in terms of price volatility risk, Taipei has the safest housing market among the studied cities. Other studies have discussed the potential housing price bubbles in regions with high housing prices but have been unable to explain the continual overheating of the housing markets. The findings of this study reveal that despite having the highest housing prices and the greatest potential bubble, the Taipei housing market has the lowest fluctuation risk, making it the safest market in terms of housing investment. The results of this study imply that Taiwan’s economic development is excessively concentrated in Taipei, causing people to bear low returns and high risk when purchasing real estate in other areas, in turn increasing the continual imbalance between regional housing markets. First published online 12 March 2020

Keywords

• Taiwanese housing market
• housing market risk
• the risk transmission
• housing investment
• the safest housing market