Emergence of sublinear scaling of firearm ownership in the United States

Abstract

Abstract Recently, Succar and Porfiri (Nature Cities 1(3):216–224, 2024) reported sublinear scaling for firearm ownership in the United States. Their analysis hinted at a causal role of prevalence of homicides and firearm accessibility on firearm ownership, supporting self-protection as a driver of firearm ownership. In this study, we propose a microscopic, individual-level model to explain these macroscopic, city-level findings. In the model, individuals dwell in a city and buy a gun if they experience a violent interaction and know a dealer. We examine the model from a network science perspective and show the emergence of sublinear scaling with an exponent matching empirical observations. Beyond scaling, the model provides accurate predictions of city rankings in terms of firearm ownership, underscoring the explanatory power of the self-protection theory.

Keywords

• Firearm accessibility
• Firearm ownership
• Social networks
• Statistical physics
• Urban scaling
• Violence