Equilibrium analysis for an epidemic model with a reservoir for infection

Abstract

We consider a system of non-linear differential equations describing the spread of an epidemic in two interacting populations. The model assumes that the epidemic spreads within the first population, which in turn acts as a reservoir of infection for the second population. We explore the conditions under which the epidemic is endemic in both populations and discuss the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium using a Lyapunov function and results established for asymptotically autonomous systems. We discuss monkeypox as an example of an emerging disease that can be modelled in this way and present some numerical results representing the model and its extensions.

Keywords

• Monkeypox
• Lyapunov function
• epidemic model
• systems of ODEs
• global stability