The Early Effect of <i>Black Land Protection Plan in Northeast China</i> on Industrial Pollution Using Synthetic Control Method

Abstract

This study used relevant industrial pollution emission data collected between 2004 and 2020 in northeastern China. It utilized the synthetic control method (SCM) and used entire county-level areas within the scope of the typical black land protection as the experimental group. Thirty regions in China (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), including the three non-black land areas of Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Inner Mongolia, and the other 26 entire provinces were taken as the control group. We studied whether the Outline of Black Land Protection Plan in Northeast China (2017–2030) (BLPP) has reduced local industrial pollution emissions since it was issued in 2017. The study found that implementation of the BLPP reduced industrial wastewater and sulfur dioxide emissions in black land areas significantly. Between 2017 and 2020, local industrial wastewater production decreased by 29.3% compared to the period without implementation of the outline, while industrial sulfur dioxide decreased by 12%. These results remained robust under the placebo and difference-in-difference (DID) tests. This once again showed that implementation of the outline had a significant effect on reducing industrial pollutant emissions in the black land area of northeastern China.

Keywords

• black land area
• industrial pollution emission
• synthetic control method
• policy impact evaluation