Spatio-temporal dynamics of plastic mulch use in crop rotation at parcel and regional scales

Abstract

Plastic mulch is increasingly used in agriculture due to its short-term benefits, while long-term risks of plastic accumulation in soil is a growing concern. An analytical methodology is presented to quantify plastic mulch usage based on location, timing, and crop type, at parcel and regional scales. Multispectral Sentinel-2 data identified plastic mulch use between 2017 and 2021 with an F1 score of 0.7. Historical patterns of mulch use and crop rotation were explored through sequence analysis, and enabled predictions and likelihood of occurrence of plastic mulch for the year 2022. Silage maize followed by asparagus and carrots are the most prevalent crops utilizing plastic mulch. Successive cropping of silage maize on the same parcel was detected on 70 % of parcels, surpassing 40 % of successive cropping for four continuous years. Successive asparagus crops on the same plot, often alternating with spinach and carrots, also occurs. Crop forecasting reached an accuracy of 0.76 when up to 10 potential crop predictions for each historical sequence were permitted. The prediction of the likelihood of plastic mulch improved with fewer permitted predicted crops (<6). The methodology allows for detecting plastic mulch, analysing spatio-temporal patterns and assessing likelihood of occurrence.

Keywords

• Plastic mulch
• Soil management
• Crop rotation
• Sentinel-2
• Sequence analysis
• Spatio-temporal patterns