SARS-CoV-2 trends in Italy, Germany and Portugal and school opening during the period of Omicron variant dominance: A quasi experimental study in the EuCARE project

Abstract

Objectives: We investigated the impact of school reopening on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Italy, Germany, and Portugal in autumn 2022 when the Omicron variant was prevalent. Methods: A prospective international study was conducted using the case reproduction number (Rc) calculated with the time parametrization of Omicron. For Germany and Italy, staggered difference-in-differences analysis was employed to explore the causal relationship between school reopening and Rc changes, accounting for varying reopening dates. In Portugal, interrupted time series analysis was used due to simultaneous school reopenings. Multivariable models were adopted to adjust for confounders. Results: In Italy and Germany, post-reopening Rc estimates were significantly lower compared to those from regions/states that had not yet reopened at the same time points, both in the student population (overall average treatment effect for the treated subpopulation [O-ATT]: -0.80 [95% CI: -0.94;-0.66] for Italy; O-ATT-0.30 [95% CI: -0.36;-0.23] for Germany) and the adult population (O-ATT: -0.04 [95% CI: -0.07;-0.01] for Italy; O-ATT: -0.07 [95% CI: -0.11;-0.03] for Germany). In Portugal, there was a significant decreasing trend in Rc following school reopenings compared to the pre-reopening period (sustained effect: -0.03 [95% CI: -0.04; -0.03] in students; -0.02 [95% CI: -0.03; -0.02] in adults). Conclusions: We found no evidence of a causal relationship between school reopenings in autumn 2022 and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• Schools
• Reproduction number
• Difference-in-differences
• Interrupted time series