56 Using machine learning to predict 30-day readmission and reoperation following resection of supratentorial high-grade gliomas: A national analysis of 9,418 patients.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: High-grade gliomas (HGG) are among the rarest, most aggressive tumors in neurosurgical practice. We aimed to identify the clinical predictors for 30-day readmission and reoperation following HGGs surgery using the NSQIP database and seek to create web-based applications predicting each outcome. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter cohort analysis of patients who underwent resection of supratentorial HGG between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020, using the NSQIP database. Demographics and comorbidities were extracted. The primary outcomes were 30-day unplanned readmission and reoperation. A stratified 80:20 split of the available data was carried out. Supervised machine learning algorithms were trained to predict 30-day outcomes. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: A total of 9,418 patients were included in our cohort. The rate of unplanned readmission within 30 days of surgery was 14.9%.Weight, chronic steroid use, pre-operative BUN, and WBC count were associated with a higher risk of readmission. The rate of early unplanned reoperation was 5.47%. Increased weight, higher operative time, and a longer period between hospital admission and the operation were linked to increased risk of early reoperation. Our Random Forest algorithm showed the highest predictive performance for early readmission (AUC = 0.967), while the XG Boost algorithm showed the highest predictive performance for early reoperation (AUC = 0.985).Web-based tools for both outcomes were deployed: https://glioma-readmission.herokuapp.com/, https://glioma-reoperation.herokuapp.com/. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: A high fraction of documented early unplanned readmission and reoperation were considered preventable and related to surgery. Machine learning allows better prediction of resected HGG’s prognosis based on findings from baseline methods leading to more personalized patient care.