Equity Analysis and Demand Prediction of General Practitioner Resource Allocation in Western China

Abstract

Background General practitioners (GPs) are gatekeepers of residents' health, the rational allocation of resources is the basic guarantee for achieving fairness in health services. At present, research on the allocation of GPs in China mainly focuses on the whole country and individual provinces, lack of research on the allocation of human resources for general practitioners in the western region as the research object. Objective To comprehensively evaluate the current situation of GPs resource allocation in western China from 2015 to 2020, provide a reference for optimizing the resources distribution of GPs in the western region of China. Methods The data for this study were derived from the China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook (2016-2017), the China Health Statistics Yearbook (2018-2022), and the China Statistical Yearbook (2016-2022). Using Atkinson index and location entropy to calculate and decompose the overall allocation of GPs resources in the western region. Using grey prediction model to predict the demand for GPs in the western region from 2022 to 2025. Results From 2015 to 2020, the number of GPs in the western region increased from 39 290 to 94 652, with an average annual growth rate of 19.23%. The Atkinson Index by population, economy, and geography in 2015 and 2020 respectively were 0.1265 and 0.049 3, 0.124 4 and 0.038 2, 0.786 5 and 0.694 4. The location entropy of population, economy, and geographical indicators in the western provinces in 2020 respectively ranged from 0.794 3 to 1.219 0, 0.697 0 to 1.337 3, and 0.043 2 to 7.7270. The location entropy of geographical allocation in the southwest region is greater than 1, while the location entropy of population allocation in the northwest region is better than geographical allocation.The location entropy of economic indicators in Gansu, Qinghai and Guangxi is greater than 1 during the research period.The grey model predicts that the resources of GPs in the western region will show an increasing trend from 2022 to 2025. Conciusion The allocation level of GPs in the western region is gradually improving, and the structure is gradually optimizing. However, there are still problems such as insufficient total quantity, uneven distribution, low registration rate, and poor fairness. Suggestions should be based on geographical classification as the standard, with the principle of "Adjust increment and optimize inventory", the goal of occupational attractiveness, and the guidance of resource integration and regional collaboration to further optimize the resource allocation of GPs in the western region.

Keywords

• general practitioners|resource allocation|health equity|western region|atkinson index|location entropy|grey prediction