Assessing the impact of temperature on acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations in residents of Panzhihua City: a multi-districts study using a distributed lag non-linear model

Abstract

Abstract Background Temperature fluctuations can impact the occurrence and progression of respiratory system diseases. However, the current understanding of the impact of temperature on acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) remains limited. Therefore, our study aims to investigate the relationship between daily mean temperature (DMT) and the risk of AECOPD hospitalizations within Panzhihua City. Methods We systematically collected data on AECOPD hospitalizations at Panzhihua Central Hospital from 2015 to 2020 and meteorological factors across Panzhihua City’s districts. A two-stage analysis method was used to establish a distributed lag non-linear model to elucidate the influence of DMT on the frequency of admissions for AECOPD. Subgroup analyses were conducted by gender and age to identify populations potentially susceptible to the impact of DMT. Results A total of 5299 AECOPD hospitalizations cases were included. The DMT and the risk of AECOPD hospitalization showed a non-linear exposure–response pattern, with low temperatures exacerbating the risk of hospitalizations. The lag effects of low temperature and relatively low temperature peaked at 2th day, with the lag effects disappearing at 16–17 days. Females and elders aged ≥ 65 years were more sensitive to effects of low and relatively low temperature at lag 0–4 days, while male AECOPD patients exhibited longer lasting lag effects. Conclusions Low temperatures are associated with an increased risk of AECOPD hospitalizations. Females or elders aged ≥ 65 years with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease should pay more attention to taking protective measures in cold environments. These findings are crucial for the formulation of public health policies, as they will help significantly alleviate the burden of AECOPD and improve respiratory health in the face of climate challenges.

Keywords

• Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
• Acute exacerbation of COPD
• Daily mean temperature
• Distributed lag non-linear model
• Lag effects