Fiscal Regulation of Public Debt under Martial Law: Risks and Prospects for Ukraine

Abstract

The article considers the issue of fiscal regulation of the public debt of Ukraine under martial law. The aim of the study is to systematize the theoretical foundations and practical approaches to the fiscal regulation of public debt, assessing debt risks and determining the prospects for the development of public debt management under martial law. The theoretical foundations of public debt management on the basis of the conception of fiscal space are deepened: the essence of public debt management is graphically presented, the special role of fiscal space in the regulation of public debt is revealed. Practical approaches to the regulation of public debt on the basis of fiscal consolidation, which are used by the EU countries, are systematized. A systematization of the assessment of debt risks and control measures in the regulation of public debt has been carried out. The economic and mathematical dependence of the impact of fiscal space indicators on GDP under martial law is illustrated. The following methods of scientific research were used in the study: monographic – in the process of studying the economic essence of public debt; analytical – when analyzing the components of the public debt, indicators of the fiscal space of the State budget; correlation-regression analysis – when assessing the impact of fiscal space indicators on GDP growth. Among the perspective areas of debt management, attention is focused on the application of an institutional approach based on the creation of an independent fiscal institution – the parliamentary budget office to strengthen the transparency of the public finance system.

Keywords

• public debt
• fiscal regulation
• risks
• economic development
• revenues
• expenditures
• fiscal space
• budget
• martial law