A Novel Clinical Predictor of Metabolic Syndrome: Vascular Risk Age

Abstract

Objective: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) promotes the development of diabetes mellitus (DM) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Predicting individuals who are at high risk for developing MetS is essential. Vascular risk age (VRA) is a clinical substitute for cardiovascular risk. In this study, we ascertained whether VRA is an indicator of MetS. Method: This study involved 169 subjects (96 females, 73 males, aged 40-83 year) without any previous diagnosis of ASCVD or DM. MetS was diagnosed as stated by ATP III-2005 and IDF-2009. The SCORE2/SCORE2-OP 10-year fatal CVD risk and VRA were computed for all participants. Results: The frequency of MetS based on the ATP III-2005 criteria was 40.2% overall, 39.6% in females, and 41.1% in males, while it was 47.9% in total, 43.8% in females, and 53.4% in males based on IDF-2009 criteria. VRA was significantly higher in cases with MetS in comparison to the cases without MetS (p<0.001), and it was associated with all components of MetS (WC, r=0.194, p=0.011; SBP, r=0.434, p<0.001; BDP, r=0.262, p=0.001; total-C, r=0.223, p=0.003; high-density lipoprotein-C, r=-0.307, p<0.001; TG, r=0.324, p<0.001; and FG, r=0.196, p=0.011). VRA was appeared to be a power-full predictor of MetS in area under the curve (AUC)-ROC curve analysis [AUC=0.658, 95% confidence interval (CI)= 0.576-0.740; for a cut-off of 54.0 years, Youden index=0.19, sensitivity=75.0%, and specificity of 45.0%], and logistic regression (odds ratio: 1.086, p=0.041, 95% CI=1.003-1.175). Conclusion: VRA is an important and independent predictor of MetS and can be considered for clinical purposes.

Keywords

• atherosclerosis
• atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
• diabetes mellitus
• metabolic syndrome
• vascular risk age