The IAEA and Irreversibility: Addressing Political, Institutional, and Technological Verification Challenges in Former Nuclear-Armed States

Abstract

This article addresses challenges the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) may face when conducting nuclear verification activities in former nuclear-armed States after the completion of their disarmament process. It does so by discussing the institutional, political and technological considerations that would present challenges and opportunities for the IAEA, building on discussions held in a workshop with an interactive simulation with eminent practitioners in the field of nuclear verification and scholars. First, the article briefly describes past discussions on the IAEA’s role in verifying former nuclear weapons possessors, and it assesses how nuclear safeguards could ensure irreversibility, verifiability and transparency in a disarmed environment. Second, it explores institutional, political, and technological challenges and opportunities for the IAEA verifying irreversibility. Institutional aspects include resource management, legal frameworks, and the adaptation of policymaking organs. Political aspects discussed are the potential for shifting the Agency’s organisational culture and mitigating financial constraints. Lastly, technological aspects include leveraging existing and new verification methods, dealing with new forms of classified materials, and assessing the completeness of nuclear material inventories.

Keywords

• Irreversibility
• nuclear disarmament
• IAEA
• military nuclear stockpiles elimination
• former nuclear-armed states
• safeguards