Transactions on Transport Sciences (Dec 2024)
Consumer Preferences and Determinants of Transportation Mode Choice Behaviors in the Era of Autonomous Vehicles
Abstract
The supply-side advancement in the transportation modes may bring a new mobility paradigm in the proximate future because consumers in the era of autonomous vehicles (AVs) would be able to choose from a variety of modes of transportation that would be likely to co-exist, including private AVs, conventional automobiles, and shared mobility services. Accordingly, research on the demand response is needed since it can provide insights on who would use and how the market would react to these emerging modes, which helps develop a more solid long-term transportation planning. Thus, this study conducted nationwide stated choice experiments in the U.S. and employed the Mixed Logit (MXL) model. Combined with market share summary, parameter estimation, and marginal effect estimates, this study offered several notable findings and implications. For instance, descriptive statistics underscored a significant propensity for private and shared AVs, with approximately 24% of respondents indicating their intention to use these modes, while shared mobility services garnered less than 10% of the market share. However, conventional personal cars retained their dominance, with around 50% of respondents favoring this mode in the AV era. Moreover, parameter estimation of the MXL model indicates that trip purposes, alternative-specific characteristics, individual features, transportation-related factors, and attitudinal factors significantly and differently influence the outcome probability of choosing a certain mode. Furthermore, marginal effects estimated from the model suggest that the potential users of AVs and SAVs seem to be more cost-conscious than drivers of a personal car, while SAV users are slightly less cost-sensitive than AV users. These findings underscore the need for adaptive policies that cater to the diverse preferences and behaviors of future mobility consumers, ensuring the development of sustainable and equitable transportation systems.
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