Ecological Indicators (Jun 2024)
Evaluation and forecasting of water cycle health in the yangtze river economic belt using composite weight and extensible cloud model
Abstract
The regional water cycle reflects the dual processes of nature and society. A healthy and benign water cycle is a fundamental guarantee for achieving regional sustainable development.The Yangtze River Economic Belt, as a densely populated urban cluster with abundant water resources in China, plays a crucial role in promoting the sustainable development of Chinese urban clusters. It is of significant importance to optimize the water cycle health of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and explore its primary obstacles.This study integrates the natural-social attributes of the water cycle and selects 25 evaluation indicators from six dimensions: Drivers (D), Pressures (P), States (S), Impacts (I), Responses (R), and Management (M), to construct the water cycle evaluation system for the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), and the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, the comprehensive weights of subjective and objective factors are obtained based on the principle of minimum relative entropy.Based on this, an Extended Cloud Model is constructed to evaluate the water cycle health status of the region from 2012 to 2022.Furthermore, the Obstacle Degree Model is introduced to identify the primary obstacles affecting the water cycle health in the region. Finally, the ARIMA model is applied to forecast the water cycle health status in the region from 2023 to 2030.The results indicate that the comprehensive water cycle health level in the region improved gradually from initially sub-pathological to sub-healthy status from 2012 to 2022.Per capita GDP, industrial water consumption per ten thousand yuan of industrial value added, per capita water consumption, forest coverage rate, sediment transport module, proportion of environmental protection investment to GDP, and proportion of water resources management investment to GDP are the primary obstacles affecting the improvement of health in this region.The forecast indicates that the overall water cycle health status in the region will remain at a sub-healthy level from 2023 to 2030.The research results can provide a scientific reference for further promoting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, better supporting and serving China's modernization, and providing scientific reference basis.
