High winter mortality of honey bees (Apis mellifera) has been observed in temperate regions over the past 30 years. Several biotic and abiotic stressors associated with winter colony losses have been identified, but the mechanisms and interactions underlying their effects remain unclear. We reviewed the effects of stressors on key overwintering biological traits, distinguishing between individual and colony traits. We found that disturbances at the level of individual traits can be amplified when transmitted to colony traits. By analyzing these cascading effects, we propose a concept of a feedback loop mechanism of winter mortality. We found that population size, social thermoregulation and honey reserve are integrative traits and can predict overwintering failure. Furthermore, we identified social thermoregulation as a good candidate for an early warning indicator. We therefore discuss existing tools for monitoring hive temperature to help mitigate the current high winter mortality of honey bees and support the sustainability of beekeeping.
